Assaí has cut in half its projection for opening new stores next year, in an effort by CEO Belmiro Gomes to decrease its capex and accelerate deleveraging.
The wholesale network now expects to open 10 stores in 2025, compared to the previously projected 20.
The reduction creates savings of R$ 800 million to R$ 1 billion compared to sellside models.
Total capex projected for 2025 will now range between R$ 1 billion and R$ 1.2 billion, with R$ 650-750 million going towards opening new stores; R$ 250-300 million for maintenance and installation of new services in current stores; and R$ 100-150 million for infrastructure, IT systems, and innovation.
The sellside consensus for next year was a capex of R$ 2 billion, with maintenance capex around R$ 500 million.
Assaí stated that the new strategic planning was done “primarily considering the recent increases in the Selic rate and the changes in interest rate expectations for the coming years, directly influencing the cost of carrying net debt.”
For 2026, Assaí’s projection remains to open 20 new stores, but a company source said this projection could also be reduced in the future depending on how the macro scenario evolves.
According to this source, Assaí is also considering a sale and leaseback operation, which could raise about R$ 1 billion for the company, further accelerating the reduction of leverage.
Currently, 30% of Assaí’s store park is owned, and the rest is rented.
The slowdown in expansion comes after years of strong growth for Assaí, which opened 120 stores since the beginning of 2021, including the conversion of 64 Extra hypermarkets into network stores. The company also made a significant investment to include services such as butchery, bakery, and cold cuts slicing in its stores.
“This intense period of store openings anticipated Assaí’s expansion by a few years, and the acquisition of hypermarket commercial points allowed entry into strategic regions that would hardly be accessed by organic expansion,” the company said.
However, this cycle also caused the company’s leverage to skyrocket, reaching 4.4x EBITDA at its peak in 2022. Last year, leverage had already dropped to 3.8x, and Assaí’s estimate for this year is to close at 3.2x.
For 2025, taking into account the new opening projection, leverage is expected to close at 2.6x, according to the company’s calculations.
This number is also expected to surprise the market, as the current consensus is around 3x EBITDA for the end of next year.
Source
Arwen Volkov, A graduate of the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland with a degree in International Finance, Arwen specializes in sustainable finance and green investments. She began her career at an investment bank in London, where she developed financing models for environmentally friendly projects. Known for her analytical and strategic thinking skills, Arwen is a sought-after financial consultant. In her spare time, she mentors fintech startups, contributing to their growth strategies. She is also a nature enthusiast and an amateur photographer.
